wheel of fortune

Economies move in cycles. It is inevitable, irreversible, and largely uncontrollable.

I emphasize largely.

There have been a couple of adjustments recently – economists say, “No big deal – that usually happens when we have a period of rapid growth.”; but the media is feeding people’s fears.

A drop of 1.9% of the markets value is headlined as “Stocks Plunge!”

The market grew by 3%+ in December of last year. An adjustment of anything less than 6% or 7% is just that – an adjustment. As said Mr. Potter (he of It’s a Wonderful Life, not the one from The Prisoner of Azkaban):

These rubes panicked; but you and I, George, were the only ones who kept our heads. While they were all selling, you and I were the only ones buying.

Rough translation, pulled from foggy memory. Forgive me, oh Mr. Capra.

Are there ill winds blowing in the economy? Some, but the winds are currently light and variable. The subprime lenders are going to hurt us all, and one could argue that even some of the standard lenders have been marginally subby in their way of doing business for the last several years; but I’m not ready to cry “doom and gloom.” Not yet.

I have two brothers who have displayed an uncanny knack for getting this stuff right. One is an economist, the other a business owner

american idle

As I was watching American Idol last night (my wife had another commitment, and somebody had to let her know what happened), I had a thought.

Now some of you are probably thinking that “thought” and “American Idol” are mutually exclusive terms, but the show occupied about 2% of my brain.

So here’s the thought: Let the next American Presidential Election be done Idol-style.

• Use some judges to filter out the folks who are utterly unelectable. Come on, you know that 50% of the names on the primary ballots don’t have a chance – let’s save some of that Presidential Election Fund money we all give through our taxes each year (*wink-wink*).
• Once we’re down to the top dozen, give each a minute-and-a-half to explain their views on a range of topics. This week could be on policy towards Russia; next week on gun control.
• People vote using their Social Security number. Each number gets one vote. Numbers entered multiple times are discounted from the tally.
• Each week, one candidate is voted off the stage. When they lose, in the style of Idol, they get to repeat the policy stance that lost them the election before they walk off to oblivion.

Sometimes I amaze even myself.

moonlight and madness

Actor Tom Hanks once said on Inside the Actors’ Studio that every great role is about loneliness. I think every great story is too.

My friend is a little nervous. We’ve been talking a lot, finding common and uncommon ground, but this is a story he is hesitant to share. After hearing it, I understand why; but I ask for permission to summarize it here. Names and locations have been changed, though not to protect the innocent. There are no innocents in this story.

The baby would be about ten now.

This guy is practically a newlywed, so that catches me off guard. He continues…

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The three of them met at church. They were a young couple with no kids, very talented singers. The husband was an Arkansas State Patrol officer, while she worked for her family’s construction business.

My friend was in school at the time, selling cameras to pay the rent. He also was a pretty good pianist, so they had a common area of interest.

At first, the three of them hung out together. They would have a meal, then sing for a while, maybe watch some TV. After a few months, they were very good friends.

One evening, they invited him over for dinner. When he arrived, the husband’s car was gone. “Oh, he was called in for a special shift.” He asked if he should come again another time; but they were supposed to sing at a wedding soon, so he stayed to practice.

This began to happen frequently – the husband was called away, the dinner was already cooked, they were all such good friends…but you can see where this is going. The wife and my friend eventually got too close.  The affair lasted for a couple of years.

He swears he tried to break it off, tried to walk, even run, away; but he was hooked.

Finally, he broke free. He moved. And he sent a letter to the husband, begging for his forgiveness.  He left no forwarding address – probably wise, considering the husband’s occupation and temper. But he followed up through common friends.

Turns out the husband had been aware for some time. The couple had been living completely separate lives for months.

But it didn’t end there.

The wife was pregnant. Bad timing, given the living arrangements in their home. One night she drove herself to the hospital. Someone had been punching her in the stomach, and the baby was lost.

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We pray. I don’t have words. Maybe that’s just as well.

pick up the pace

Marine General Peter Pace (whose name sounds like a cover name for a superhero) made some comments the other day regarding the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy on homosexuality. He kinda went a step further than the policy, daring to (*gasp*) voice his personal opinion that homosexuality is immoral.

Half of official Washington fell out of their collective chairs. Everyone around Gen. Pace is backpedaling and trying to soften the blow or trying to distance themselves from him.

Here’s the thing. The US military drums out people who are having affairs. What is an affair? A relationship outside of marriage. Is it evenly enforced? I don’t know; but I understand the reasoning for the rule.

A young soldier heads off to serve. They are focused on a mission, and their fellow soldiers around them are depending on them to do their job. In most of society, a life on the road includes an increased risk of marital infedilty; the military says, “We can’t guarantee it, but we will make it less attractive.” As for the unmarried, do you think people who are involved with each other sexually are going to be able to maintain a proper focus while in the field? A physical relationship cements an emotional bond; for most people, that means they would be distracted at a time where their focus needs to be laser-sharp. That has nothing to do with gender – it’s all about the mission.

As for the Pace interview, I doubt that the general was looking for a chance to get the gay community worked up. I’m guessing the reporter had an agenda. If the subject won’t make the administration look bad, discredit the subject – that’s the rule in most of the media today.

Pace regrets making the comments, but he stands by his opinion. Good for him.

People of principle are hard to find.